Break-even win rate calculator
Enter your profit target and your stop loss. You'll see the win rate your strategy needs just to break even, and what you make or lose per trade at your own win rate.
Win rate needed to break even
33.3%
At a 40.0% win rate you clear it by 6.7 points. Average result per trade, before costs: +0.60%.
Break-even win rate = stop ÷ (target + stop).
Common exits
| Target / stop | Needs to win |
|---|---|
| +2% / −2% | 50.0% |
| +3% / −3% | 50.0% |
| +4% / −2% | 33.3% |
| +4% / −3% | 42.9% |
| +5% / −3% | 37.5% |
| +6% / −3% | 33.3% |
| +10% / −5% | 33.3% |
Real tests, against the line
Each of these was backtested on all 503 S&P 500 stocks. The win rate only means something next to the line its exits set.
- Support bounce: needed 37.5%, won 54.2%.
- Hammer candle: needed 42.9%, won 38.7%.
- Gap fill: needed 37.5%, won 36.0%.
Where does your real win rate come from?
Not from a guess. Replay your rule on real history and count. Trade Manager backtests a strategy across one stock or the whole S&P 500 for free, then alerts you on Telegram or email when it fires. The full explanation is in what win rate do you actually need?
Backtest your strategy freeEducational content only, not financial advice. Results above are before commissions and slippage. Read the full Disclaimer.